Have you taken a walk down Glen Huntly Road lately? The formerly prosperous and bustling Elsternwick Shopping district that has been much beloved by the locals, and has been extremely popular with Jewish Melbourne in particular, is now a shadow of its recent self. The economic calamity known as lockdown has just begun to show its signs there with several storefronts completely shut down on every single block. The same can be seen on Carlisle Street, and one can presume in every single shopping district in Melbourne. These businesses are not temporarily closed. Nor are they doing business in a limited fashion through 'click and collect' or take away-- not at all. These businesses, many of them that were very profitable and well established, are well and truly done, finished, as in out of business and never to return again.
For those of you my dear readers who are not business owners this may not actually affect you so much. Perhaps you still have a steady paycheck, are on Jobkeeper or the dole, work for the government, are a member of the clergy, or work for an educational institution, so for you the restrictions and lockdowns have perhaps been at worst an inconvenience, or even better, a pleasant break from the routine. For the owners of most small to medium businesses, however, this has been an absolute living nightmare--- but just wait, it will be for you as well soon enough, as will be explained in a moment. But for now, if you are not a business owner try for a moment to put yourself in their shoes.
Imagine you worked and scrimped and saved for many years to finally own your own business. You take pride in it, it is your 'baby' as they say. You toil more than your employees because all the responsibility lies on your shoulders and, you care about it more than anyone else would, as that would be natural.
At times it took tremendous self discipline and sacrifice to keep it going, so much so that maybe you wanted to quit, throw in the towel and give up, but your persevered. During those tough times you paid your employees a salary but not yourself. During those tough times who was there that you could unburden yourself to? Your customers? They would be the last people you would confide in, unless you wanted to ruin your business. Your creditors? Your employees? The bank? The government? Your competitors? Of course not! How about your friends who are not business owners? They probably mean well but could not relate. Your spouse? Maybe, unless you would rather not have them get anxious and worried about all your problems. The point is that a business owner is very much on their own, the captain of their own ship, but unlike the navy captain, the business owner cannot rely on the support of their superiors or on the loyalty of their workers, as neither support nor loyalty are coming their way.
Imagine, after all the hard work and sacrifice the business succeeds. It is humming along day to day, week to week, month to month, year to year. Some quarters are better than others. Of course there are snags along the way and crises to handle, but in general you go in everyday and know what to expect. You have your routines. You have relationships with people whom you do business with that have been built over many years of trust and, sometimes you become very friendly with those people. You have plans, how to do it better in the next six months than you did in the last, a new exciting idea or product to try, or a new expansion plan, all of which keeps your interest and enthusiasm going.
Imagine also you have much of your hard earned money invested in machinery, or stock. Also there are many obligations to meet, not only cumbersome government regulations, but also a steady stream of bills. Bills such as rent, insurances, inventory, utilities, bank loans, consultant fees, accountancy fees, legal fees, payroll, upkeep, marketing, delivery charges, maintenance, taxes, unexpected costs, and the list of expenses goes on and on. All of those obligations rest on the business owner's shoulders and their shoulders alone. Employees go home after a day's work secure in the expectation that they will get their paycheck, but few of them can comprehend how much behind the scenes goes into their job security.
Now imagine the government decides for whatever reason that not only your business but most of the other businesses are to suddenly stop trading. The daily buzz in your office, factory, restaurant, or whatever it may be, suddenly ceases. The phones stop ringing. People stop coming to your premises. The daily hustle and bustle of your routine suddenly goes dead. Imagine thinking of all your capital that is tied up suddenly not only not earning you any money, but costing you money, heaps of money, as you stare at the emails and piles of obligations and bills you still have to meet regardless of the government shut down. How do you think that would feel? Do you think you would feel a bit of a vacuum in your life? Would you feel a bit lost? A bit out of sorts, a bit frightened even?
Couple all this with a government/media complex that promotes propaganda 24/7 to convince the public that 'we are all in this together.' Do you think the business owner feels that is true or would he or she feel it is a lie? How do you think the mottos 'stay home and save lives' or 'staying home saves lives' would resonate with the business owner as they are overwhelmed with obligations and no sign when this will all abate and go back to normal? Would it be reasonable for business owners to start to feel abandoned by their country? Would it be reasonable for business owners to start to feel as if their government is actually out to destroy them? That this is a war against small business in general?
One thing business needs to exist more than anything else and that is a semblance of certainty. Without that business cannot function. How can a business continue if there is no certainty as to how much inventory they will need to order? How can they manage employees without knowing how long they will need them for? Look at so many shops that are closed now and what will you see? Winter clothes in the shop windows that will never be sold. Behind that are warehouses filled with next season's and next year's clothes waiting to be delivered but are all boxed up. Restaurants with heaps of rotting food they will never use. Behind those are orchards that cannot sell their wine, farmers that cannot sell their produce, etc. Think of just one bottle of wine a restaurant will not be buying now. This effects the winery, the orchards, the printers who make the wine labels, the barrels maker who stores the wine, the landlords who warehouse the barrels, and so on and so forth. Entire supply chains are breaking. Small business keeps an entire society going. We are all intricately economically interdependent. This is why the lockdown is an economic calamity.
Which brings us back, dear readers, to how this all affects even those who are still getting paid, working, or living off government subsidies. None of you are safe either as this must and will come back to effect all of you too. The government depends on taxes, and where do most of the taxes come from? From small and medium businesses. Eventually the tax base will shrink. As it is now the government has told us Jobkeeper and JobSeeker are too much of a strain to keep up much longer. Soon enough millions, and it will be millions, of people are going to be thrown off the government doles. This means they will be seeking jobs, but there will be no jobs. If there are no jobs this means that donations will also dry up, and this is very bad news for those who work for institutions that survive on donations.
This promises to be the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression and hardly anyone will be spared from its effects. Already we see a gigantic upsurge in mental illness and death. The upsurge in deaths are not from the virus, not at all! The lockdown is the virus, and its deleterious effects on our lives and all the human suffering that comes along with it are yet to be felt. There is only one way to avoid this catastrophe, and that is to reopen our economy, reopen now, and isolate the vulnerable, and go for herd immunity. We must learn to live with this virus or many more will suffer and die than the virus would ever kill.
